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Covid: What to Expect this Winter ?

ByLara van Vorst

Sep 29, 2023
Stylised image of the coronavirus

Just in time for the colder months, the number of COVID-19 cases seem to be rising again and a new variant called Ba.2.86 or Pirola has reached Scotland. 

In preparation for the upcoming winter, people eligible for a vaccine booster are strongly advised by the NHS to get vaccinated.

Public Health Scotland (PHS) is currently monitoring the developments concerning the new variant.

According to the BBC on 18 September, there had so far been 5 cases of the new variant reported in Scotland.

The most recent government report shows that overall, there were about 20.1 in 100,000 people who tested positive for the Covid in the past 7 days. 

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At the moment, however, it is nearly impossible to fully assess the ongoing situation and correctly monitor infection rates. 

Testing for the virus has been heavily scaled back since May 2023 when the WHO (World Health Organisation) declared that the global emergency caused by COVID-19 was over.

For the time being, little is known about the new variant, but scientists believe that with its more than 30 mutations, the virus is easily transmissible. 

PHS recently released a statement saying they have put together “a team to monitor the evolving situation and investigate the cases.” 

Until more is known, the government’s strategy for the upcoming winter appears to rely almost entirely on the winter vaccination programme started in early September.

Dr Claire Cameron, who is a Consultant in Health Protection for PHS recently stated: “Getting vaccinated is the safest and most effective way to protect yourself against flu and COVID-19 this winter.” 

The programme offers a combined vaccine booster against the flu and Covid to all who are eligible for it.

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This includes those aged 65 and over, residents and staff in care homes, pregnant people, people with weaker immune systems and those in frequent contact with them, like frontline health and social care workers.

A UK Government report on the current situation in Edinburgh showed that between 10 September and 16 September, 102 people had tested positive for COVID-19. 

This is a decrease of 42.4 per cent compared to the previous week. 

Furthermore, the rate of hospital admissions has decreased by 7 per cent in the past seven days. 

Dr Gwenetta Curry, lecturer at the University of Edinburgh warns: “People should be sure to remain aware of the threats to health and well-being.” 

Given the lack of testing and knowledge about the new variant, it is unclear what to expect for the upcoming months.

Corona virus Covid-19 FC” by HFCM Communicatie is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.