After months of denying the 2020 American presidential elections results, former US President Donald Trump is now standing trial for fraud.
The indictment specifically outlines a conspiracy in which Trump and his alleged co-conspirators attempted to deceive former Vice President Mike Pence into falsely casting doubt upon the 2020 election outcome. Included in the indictment is Trump’s now infamous request to former Secretary Of State Brad Raffensperger to “find 11,780” votes in Georgia following confirmation that Biden had won the state. Conveniently, this was the exact number of votes he needed to beat Biden and secure a potentially election-swinging battleground state.
After two-recounts, the number of votes were verified, though Trump continues to argue he was the real winner of the 2020 election, frequently posting about it on his social media network, Truth Social. Trump insists that the trial is nothing more than a “sham”, accusing the Biden administration of weaponizing the US Department of Justice to interfere with his re-election campaign. Trump has gone as far as taking pride in the indictment, calling it a “truly great badge of honor [sic].”
Opinions are split on how this will affect Trump’s presidential campaign. While conventional wisdom may suggest that a series of criminal accusations could only hurt a presidential candidate, to Trump supporters, it may only reinforce their belief that an evil establishment politician in Biden is looking to shut down a disruptive candidate. Worth remembering is that as recently as March of 2023, 63% of Republicans believed Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election. For many of these voters, the indictments may only be further proof of Biden rigging the election in his favour.
While this 63% does constitute a majority of the Republican voting base, there is evidence that the remaining 37% who do believe the election was legitimate have begun to support Trump less strongly as a result of his legal troubles. According to a recent Politico poll, an increasing number of Republicans are taking the cases seriously. While the majority of Republicans do not believe him to be guilty, a majority of Republicans support a trial before the election, contrary to Trump’s lawyers who are looking to go to trial well into 2026. While Trump’s most zealous supporters may be further polarised into supporting Trump following a successful conviction, they seem to make up a relatively small minority of Republican voters. Only 13% of Republicans said that a conviction would make them more likely to support Trump.
The polling data suggests that the indictments may not be the rallying cry Trump had hoped they might be. Despite the former president continuously failing to stand by his purported values of “law and order,” it seems as if enough Republicans care about the indictments to affect his presidential campaign.
As we gear up for what could be an extremely tight race in the 2024 elections, the indictments may end up playing a major role in helping Biden secure a successful re-election campaign. While Trump supporters have largely failed to hold him accountable in past scandals, the shift in polling may indicate that the indictments were a bridge too far for many more moderate Republicans.
“President Trump at the 2020 Council for National Policy Meeting” by The White House is marked with Public Domain Mark 1.0.